Disclaimer: I’m a fan of both teams, but I have a bit at stake (no, not gambling-related) with regards to Spain winning the Cup. Nevertheless, I hope to make an objective case for Spain’s chances of victory.

With 4-0 and 4-1 (or was it 4-2) thrashings over Argentina and England (and Frank Lampard), respectively, Germany go into their semi-final with Spain as the likely favorites. It’s hard to deny that a team with such excellent players, a gelling of individual talents, and a strong history should be able to beat a Spain side who has looked shaky in their attempt not to repeat their usual early exit from the Cup.

That said, I can see Spain pulling off a surprise win in this one, even while disregarding the difficult-to-ignore fact that Müller being out on suspension for Germany.

Team play

In this tournament, Germany have not demolished teams that play well as a team. Argentina and England, in particular, were merely a collection of stars just riding along on a combination of individual performances and luck (more so luck in England’s case) until they were found out by a solid team. While Spain is star-studded, they gel as a team in a way that Argentina and England don’t (admittedly, Germany are even better in this respect).

Possession

Spain dominate possession and if they score first they are very solid for the rest of the game. Germany will have a tough time pulling off their counterattacks (despite Spain’s not-quite-world-class defense) with the way Spain move the ball around. Germany will score, I’m sure, but not with the ease that they have in the last two games.

Pressure

Spain have also been hampered by being favorites, and suddenly they are not favorites, almost underdogs in fact. I think this will lift a lot of the pressure that has hampered Spain’s usual groove. And Villa’s confidence is soaring compared to that of any individual German’s.

Germany, on the other hand, were not widely favored to win the tournament, and the sudden mounting enthusiasm of the media, fans, and the players themselves must be reaching a critical point.

Those thrashings I mentioned…

While I would never say Germany’s results against Argentina, England, and Australia were flukes, look at their other results. They narrowly defeated Ghana 1-0, a team who only just missed out on the semis themselves. They even lost to Serbia, a squad with solid team play who were pre-tournament favorites to reach the quarterfinals. Germany has tripped during these finals, and it’s unlikely they won’t trip again.

Resilience

It won’t be a blowout in either direction; 2-1 or 3-2 is my guess, if it doesn’t go to penalties. And with the resilience and composure that Spain showed in Euro 2008 (penalties against Italy, and of course the final against Germany, holding on to a narrow lead for an hour) as well as in this tournament (defeating Paraguay despite being frustrated by their defense and flustered by the penalty debacle), I’d give the edge to Spain.

I certainly won’t be too sore if Germany prevail — they’re a fantastic team playing the sport the way I like to see it be played: no BS, just solid playmaking, composure, and clinical finishing.

During Chelsea’s draw with West Ham, an incorrect penalty decision led to Frank Lampard placing the ball on the spot. Immediately after his successful first attempt, the referee blew his whistle and ordered a retake of the penalty, citing encroachment from several West Ham players.

Lampard retook the shot, then retook it once more, following another encroachment. He made all three shots, but each time, keeper Robert Green looked closer and closer to saving the shot. Meanwhile, there was no specific punishment doled out to the West Ham players.

This raises the possibility of an interesting strategy, but one that would be detrimental to the sport. Keepers are given a slight advantage when a penalty is retaken — they have an idea of whether the taker is likely to fake, which side they like to aim for, etc. It can also unsettle the taker, who doesn’t expect to have to retake each attempt.

Based on this, it would seem a good strategy for a team who has just given up a penalty to purposely encroach two or three times. Assuming they agree on the number of times in advance with the keeper, it could give he keeper a much needed opportunity to analyze the situation while the penalty taker becomes increasingly frustrated.

We know that watching a player’s previous penalty attempts is helpful — just ask Ben Foster and Jens Lehmann.

Obviously this is not how the game should be played and it would be aggravating for fans and players alike to watch. I’d liken it to the strategy in American football or basketball of the defensive team calling a timeout to ruin the flow of the game in the final crucial moments.

Surely the rules need to be changed, or referees need to hand out yellow cards more liberally when a several players disrupt the game. Thoughts?